How to spot a good value bet?
This text is based on our personal experiences and represents our opinions.
One of the big ambitions when dabbling in sports betting, is to land a big winner from a small stake. That will come about by being able to spot a good value bet. Good value has to where the thin line between the price set by the bookmaker and the chances of something unexpected happening, meet. For example, in a football match, a team priced out at 7/1 above are highly unlikely to win the match, and therefore betting on them may prove to be a bit futile. The other team in that equation would naturally be strong outright favourites, and therefore you would have to stump up a large wager in order to get any kind of great returns, simply because the odds would be so short. So, somewhere in between all that, there has to be a good value bet. How do you spot a good value bet? For starters, studying statistical sports data will help immensely. This is where spotting a trend which may just throw up an unexpected result may help you with your betting. You are not looking for an outrageous outside chance to happen, you want to find a bet that is good value and has a good chance of happening, even though it is still an outside chance. That will be a good value bet for you.
For example, if Manchester United were playing at Aston Villa for example, United would probably be favourites. However, with a good defensive system and a strong home record, Villa would, more likely than not be good value. They may be around 3/1 to win the match, for example, and it is around this number where good value is to be found. A team at home is always stronger than when they play away, and if you studied head to heads for example, you may see that Villa have done well recently against United. Manchester Untied would still be favourites to win the match, because they are the star team challenging for the league title, while Villa are hovering around mid-table. So, while it is still unlikely, an Aston Villa win is not an outrageous expectation for an outcome, and therefore will make good value for your football betting. This is something which would be worth having a solid punt on, because the returns would be good compensation for the risk. If teams are extravagantly long in odds, anywhere really above 6/1 and out, then you will really be clutching at straws, and while naturally they look very tempting, they are not really good value because it is highly unlikely in the probability stakes that they are going to happen.
If you are looking at horse racing for example, you may discover how to spot a good value bet lies in looking at second favourites in races. This is a system used by many punters, betting on second favourites on an entire race card. This is because the second favourite in the race is in with a good chance of causing an upset, and will be much better value for money than the favourite. These are the kind of areas in which you should be looking in order to spot a good value bet. You really just need to weigh up the risk. Too high risks in getting any return, doesn’t make for good value. Placing large wagers on very short odds don’t really make good value. So look for that median in-between and that is where the good value bets will lie.