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Betfair political betting market reactions to announcement of 2013 Australian Election date

January 31st, 2013 / lee
Betfair

Online betting exchange Betfair have been quick to jump on the news of Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard calling the election date. September 14th, 2013 will see Australia go to the polls again, and the early announcement of the date has split political decision. Has she shown her hand far too early with a good eight months still to go, or has it been a smart move to try and catch the opposition off guard? What lies ahead now for everyone is one marathon election campaign.

Gillard has been aggressive in putting an end to the speculation of when an election may be held, by stamping the date. This will be the first federal September poll since 1946 in Australia. As head of the Labor party, who believe that there is a lot more to gain from a very long election campaign. Labor have said that it will give them time to engage in a “cool and reasoned deliberation” over the campaign strategy. Still, Gillard’s announcement has apparently been done without senior Labor members even knowing about it.

But on the other hand, the Opposition, a coalition party led by Tony Abbott, will have a change to strategize as well, and not be caught scrambling, had Gillard announced the election closer to the actual date. In fact, the Coalition doesn’t seem to be in any hurry about launching the backbone of its election campaign, perhaps waiting to see what happens in the Budget in May and form some kind of reaction to that.

Prime Minister Gillard hasn’t revealed any of her plans yet really, nothing to do with the big spending cuts she has in mind to help pay for education and disability. Again, the key day will be the May 14th budget for her. In a reaction to the Australian election date, betting exchange Betfair have installed the incumbent Labor party as 4.2 outsiders to remain in power in September. The Coalition has been drawn in as firm favourites at a quote of 1.27 in Australian Election betting.

In November last year, Labor was as low as 3.0 and the Coalition out to 1.50, but on the current odds of 4.20 for Labor and 1.27 for the Coalition, there is a 23% chance that Labour won’t be back in power, instead handing a massive 77% chance of a change of government.



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