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Odds on England to beat South Africa in Rugby World Cup Final 2019 – 2019-11-02

31st October 2019 / lee
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England will face South Africa in the 2019 Rugby World Cup Final on Saturday, November 2nd. Will the Red Rose be able to deliver the goods and walk away with their second World Cup title?

Standing between Eddie Jones’ men and success are South Africa, who have pounded their way through to the final with brute force and power from massive forward ranks.

Will England be able to stand toe to toe with them in physicality? The odds on England to beat South Africa are 1/2* (betting odds taken from bet365 on October 31st, 2019 at 1:55 pm).

England v South Africa Odds*

England 1/2
Draw 22/1
South Africa 2/1
t* (betting odds taken from bet365 on October 31st, 2019 at 1:55 pm)

England’s impressive route to the Final

England have not had an easy path to the final. After topping their pool, they were up against old rivals Australia in the quarter-finals. England relied heavily on their superb defence for most of the opening 20 minutes of the game as the Wallabies attacked in wave after wave. Impressively England didn’t crumble, took their chances and ran up 40 points in the game to topple Australia.

That put them into the path of reigning champions New Zealand in the semi-finals. England were underdogs, but from as early as the second minute when Manu Tuilagi touched down, England were in full control. It was a supreme tactical performance, in which England kept the penalty count down and totally dominated the All Blacks to take their first-ever World Cup match win over them.

As far as the team news is concerned for the 2019 Rugby World Cup Final, England are staying with an unchanged line up from their semi-final against New Zealand. So Geoge Ford stays at fly-half with Owen Farrell in the centre alongside Manu Tuilagi. It also means that Johnny May is fit to go after both he and Farrell, suffered dead legs against the All Blacks.

Can England maintain momentum?

Now England are favourites to win the World Cup Final on the weekend. That victory over New Zealand was hugely impressive. Now the bar has been set so high, England have to find a way to match that against very different opponents. But they look focused and England have certainly grown into the tournament and have peaked at just the right time. Can they close out the deal?

Scrum-half Ben Youngs may get targeted early by the physicality of South Africa because England have flow in a replacement in the form of Saracens’ Ben Spencer as back up after Willie Heinz was injured in training. So if the Springboks can get Youngs off his game, if they can get him rattled, that could be an area in which the South Africans can attack England.

The other big area in this game is between the number eights. Can England’s Billy Vunipola handle Duane Vermeulen, who he has never beaten before in an international fixture? England are at 6/4 to win by a 1-10 points margin* (betting odds taken from bet365 on October 31st, 2019 at 1:55 pm)

Springboks dominate the head to head

England have won the last two meetings with South Africa. Those were back in 2018, England collecting a win Cape Town in June to close out a series with a 2-1 loss in South Africa. Then England took a one-point margin victory over them later that year at Twickenham.

In the last decade, England and South Africa have met a total of eleven times. England have only come away with a win in three of those matches, plus one draw. So they are badly down in the head to head.

2007 Final

England and South Africa met in the 2007 Rugby World Cup Final. England were the reigning champions following Jonny Wilkinson famous drop-goal success over Australia four years previous. England though, couldn’t get the job done as they lost 6-15. All of the points scored in that match were from penalty kicks.

England’s Mark Cueto had a disallowed try in contentious circumstances for having had a foot in touch despite inconclusive video evidence. England had lost 36-0 to the Springboks in the pool stage of that year’s tournament. South Africa are W3 L1 in four previous World Cup matches against England.

The South Africa challenge

Just after South Africa had narrowly taken a win over Wales in their semi-final match, head coach Rassie Erasmus said that South Africa are going to keep on doing what they have been doing when they face England in the final. That is, use their heavy forward power. The Springboks have so much strength and power up there, and even coming off the bench they have the potential to get even bigger.

But that leaves them as a little bit one dimensional. They have the players to open up and be expansive, but that is an area, because of England’ superb defence which is likely to leave them exposed. All the talk has been of South Africa’s forward power, but have they been tricking everyone and they are going to come out and play expansively? Possible, but unlikely. They have got star winger Cheslin Kolbe back after an injury kept him out of the semi-final, but how fit is he going to be?


England are going to have a tougher physical scrap at the breakdown than they did against New Zealand. That’s because South Africa will compete there a lot more. The South Africans were happy to keep things tight and play a kicking game against Wales, and they will probably do that to England to try and use their set-piece power.

But England just look as if they will match up to the physicality of the Springboks and England are a much more expensive, creative side through the backs than the South Africa team is. England can target the susceptible Kolbe with high kicks to get Jonny May into the game. May is the 15/2 First Try Scorer favourite* (betting odds taken from bet365 on October 31st, 2019 at 1:55 pm).

England have Tom Curry and Sam Underhill to potentially match up to South Africa at the breakdown. It really looks as if it is England’s match to lose. The odds on England to beat South Africa in the Rugby World Cup Final on Saturday are at 1/2 and there will be plenty of patriotic bets backing that* (betting odds taken from bet365 on October 31st, 2019 at 1:55 pm).

The tip is based on the personal opinion of the author. No success is guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly. 18+

* All mentioned odds were valid at the time of writing. Betting odds are subject to fluctuations. Please check the current odds with the respective bookmaker!

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